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Morning Snapshotby Peter A. Grant
Oct 01, AM 
Gold jumped to a new high for the year in early New York trading, on the heels of new all-time highs in the yellow metal against both the euro and the Swiss franc last week. These gains are largely being driven by a growing realization that we may be locked into a period of über-accommodative monetary policy for a very long time indeed. Further debasement of western currencies is a recipe for higher gold prices.With a new record high in eurozone unemployment and a disturbing miss in US construction spending as the latest examples, it would seem that the central banks easings in recent weeks were preemptive actions in anticipation of deterioration of the fiscal picture. Here in the US, all eyes will be on Friday's release of non-farm payrolls data. Median expectations are currently +123k, another pretty weak number, with the jobless rate ticking higher to 8.2%. Manufacturing data released this morning came in better than expected, but any glimmer of good news is likely to stoke inflation expectations. The Fed was pretty adamant that good news was not going to prompt them to let-up on the monetary gas pedal. • US Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.1 in Sep, vs 51.5 in Aug. • US manufacturing ISM rose to 51.5 in Sep, above expectations of 49.6, vs 49.6 Aug; prices 58.0, vs 54.0 in Aug. • US construction spending -0.6% in Aug, way below market expectations of +0.5%, vs positive revised -0.4% in Jul. • Eurozone unemployment at record high 11.4% in Aug, though that record was actually set in Jul due to an upward revision from 11.3%. • Switzerland retail sales (real) +5.9% in Aug, vs negative revised +2.9% in Jul. • Italy Markit manufacturing PMI improved to 45.7 in Sep, vs 43.6 in Aug. • Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI revised higher to 46.1 in Sep, vs 46.0 previously. • UK CIPS Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in Sep, below expectations of 49.8, vs 49.5 in Aug. • UK M4 Money Supply (sa) - Final 0.2% m/m in Aug; -4.1% y/y. • Japan Tankan Index (Large Manufacturers) -3 in Sep, vs -1 in Aug; Large Non-Manufacturers steady at 8. • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge +0.2% in Sep, vs +0.6% in Aug. • China PMI - Manufacturing (CFLP) rose to 49.8 in Sep, vs 49.2 in Aug. Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets. NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.
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Monday October 1
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